Infectious Diseases

This Modelling Tool Shows the Impact of Mitigation Efforts on the Spread of COVID-19

Posted on 27 March 2020

The Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford have created a modelling tool that forecasts how the pandemic could progress in different countries, depending on the strength of mitigation efforts across the world. The link to the tool can be found here.

We want to emphasise that real outcomes depend on human actions. The mitigation strength is our choice. Even given some mitigation level, the outcome is still uncertain, and depends on: the seasonality of the virus and its response to changing weather conditions; the mitigation decisions made by other countries; technological progress in testing, contact tracing and vaccines.

Medium-Term COVID-19 Forecast. (2020). Retrieved 27 March 2020, from

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