Infectious Diseases

Ten Countries Risk a Second Wave of Covid After Relaxing Lockdown

Posted on 25 June 2020

The University of Oxford’s coronavirus government response tracker assesses the stringency of countries’ containment measures and public information campaigns, and scores them out of 100. According the the Guardian’s analysis, ten countries that have relaxed measures to reach a score of below 70 are now experiencing a concerning rise in case numbers.

Gutiérrez, P., & Kirk, A. (2020). Revealed: countries facing coronavirus rise as lockdown relaxed. Retrieved 25 June 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jun/25/revealed-data-shows-10-countries-risking-coronavirus-second-wave-as-lockdown-relaxed

Germany experienced the largest percentage increase in cases after an outbreak at an abattoir raised the virus’s reproduction rate to nearly 3, causing the return of lockdown measures to two states. However, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Germany remains low. Conversely, Iran and Saudi Arabia are experiencing pronounced second waves.

An uptick in cases is not unexpected after the relaxation of containment measures. It is perhaps more concerning to see that some countries with high stringency scores are also experiencing a rise in cases following even slight relaxation.

Gutiérrez, P., & Kirk, A. (2020). Revealed: countries facing coronavirus rise as lockdown relaxed. Retrieved 25 June 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jun/25/revealed-data-shows-10-countries-risking-coronavirus-second-wave-as-lockdown-relaxed

The article with a more detailed breakdown of the data can be read here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jun/25/revealed-data-shows-10-countries-risking-coronavirus-second-wave-as-lockdown-relaxed


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