Posted on 2 April 2020
In this eye-opening article Sir David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the university of Cambridge, weighs up the risk of death from COVID-19 against the ‘normal’ risk of death that people face every year.
Professor Spiegelhalter reminds us that 600 000 people die every year in the UK, compared with Imperial College’s estimate of 510 000 COVID-19 excess deaths if the virus went completely unchallenged.
So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two. Which is why it’s important to spread out the infections to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed.Sir David John Spiegelhalter
He adds that the figures quoted represent the average risk across the population, not the average person’s risk: for people without chronic underlying conditions, the risk of dying from both COVID-19 and other causes is much lower.
The article is very much worth reading, and can be found here: https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
How much ‘normal’ risk does Covid represent?: https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
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